Due to the unpredictable nature of the movement of the waiting list, it's difficult to say what the chances are of securing a spot.
The waiting list is slightly more complicated than first come, first serve, since we do our best to make sure that the needs of the community are supported. Although there are never guarantees of a teaching position post training, we do our best to make sure that your home studio will be able to support new graduates with community classes, feedback and guidance. When a studio already has a number of Modo teachers working hard to build their teaching careers, it would be a disservice to offer a spot in the training to an applicant from that region. But this landscape changes regularly as people move and as the needs of the studio community change.
We advise applicants on the waiting list to not make travel or accommodation arrangements until an acceptance letter is received. Trainees have been accepted from the waiting list right up to just days before training, which understandably doesn't work for all schedules, but we this hope explains why we are unable to offer a definitive date that you might expect to hear by. It takes a good deal of trust to feel like things will unfold as they should, but this is what we encourage you to cultivate now with your practice. Applying to the teacher training is definitely the first step.